NFL Week 4 Picks

Sunday has finally come! Here are my picks for the week.

Patriots -7.5 @ Bills

Over the past 7 years, the Bills are 1-6 with the spread at home vs the Patriots. The Pats also have a significantly better roster, better QB, better coaching (all by a wide margin). Buffalo has been extremely impressive in these first three weeks, but I expect them to come back to earth in this game.

Browns +7.5 @ Ravens

Besides the game vs the Dolphins, every one of the Ravens games has been close. This Cleveland team is also extremely talented (in terms of talent, these teams are close, Cleveland more talented). I see this game being very close.

Chiefs -7.5 @ Lions

The Chiefs lead the NFL in points/play, yards/play, yards/pass, and do an incredible job of protecting their QB (3rd in not allowing sacks). Detroit has a top-12 defense so far this season, but they don’t compete in key areas. They are performing poorly against the run, and are only average in opponent yards/play.

Panthers +5.5 @ Texans

We have the Panthers and Texans ranked with extremely similar-stengthed rosters. Also, Carolina is still performing well on offense. Yes, they were playing the Cardinals but it was still a good performance. Carolina is also 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games.

Colts -6.5 vs Raiders

We still have the Colts as one of the best rosters in the NFL even without Andrew Luck, and we have the Raiders as one of the worst. The Colts are also 5-0 in their last 5 games at home.

Chargers -14.5 @ Dolphins

The Chargers are obviously the better team by a wide margin. And hey, I’ve been choosing Miami for these past 3 weeks, so I might as well pick against them this time at a lower spread.

Redskins +3 @ Giants

The Giants have lost 3 in a row at home vs the NFC East. The public is also vastly overestimating the Giants after their win vs the Bucs, who are not a great team (especially the defense). It’s a bargain to get the Redskins for +3.

Titans +3 @ Falcons

According to our ARQ rankings, the Titans have one of the best overall rosters in the NFL. Of course, you can argue that their QB is terrible, which I think is a bit harsh (maybe just a bit… fine he’s pretty bad). But that doesn’t change that the overall team has better players than the Falcons. Their defense is great, and I believe the Titans will cover.

Seattle -5.5 @ Cardinals

Seattle has the vastly better roster and leads the Cardinals in yards/play, points/play, opponent yards/play, protecting the QB, yards/pass, redzone scoring, and TDs per game. Might be my favorite bet of the week.

Rams -9 vs Bucs

The Rams have a much better roster than the Bucs and lead in points/game, points/play, TDs, opponent TDs, and many more. This screams blowout.

Bears -1.5 vs Vikings

The Bears have a much better roster than the Vikings. They have the best defense in the league. And although their offense has looked stagnant, I believe they were revitalized last week and will get a good win. The Bears are holding opponents to only 13 points per game.

Broncos -2.5 vs Jaguars

We have the Broncos D as second best roster-wise in the league, and they are going up against a young, inexperienced QB. This is a great defensive matchup, but I think Denver has great advantage at home.

Cowboys -2.5 @ Saints

The Cowboys lead the Saints in yards/play, points/play, 3rd down conversions, redzone scoring, yards/pass, protecting the QB, turnover margin, penalties, and opponent yards/pass. This will likely be close, but I have the Cowboys winning.

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