NFL Betting Picks Week 5 – Top 3 Picks

Ravens at Browns | Winner: Ravens -3
 
The John Harbaugh Ravens are 15-5 against rookie QBs. On the offensive side of the ball, the 2018-19 Ravens are 5th ranked in scoring offense, 10th ranked in yards per game, 6th ranked in 3rd down conversion %, 4th ranked in red zone efficiency, and 5th ranked in TDs per game. Although they have these impressive offensive stats, they are a defensive-led team, with a defense top-5 ranked in opponent scoring, opponent yards, opponent yards per play, opponent 3rd down conversion %, opponent rushing yards, opponent yards per pass, opponent completion %, and opponent passing yards. Those are just the stats where they’re ranked top-5. There are a plethora of other stats where they’re ranked top-10. This type of stout defense isn’t a good matchup for a rookie QB, especially when the Browns are already poor or mediocre in every offensive passing stat. The as-of-yet unmentioned Browns defense is also relatively porous within pass coverage, ranked 23rd against the pass and 24th against the run. The 3 point spread is definitely coverable for the Ravens.
Falcons at Steelers | Winner: Falcons +3
Atlanta is currently ranked 7th in offensive DVOA, and is ranked top-10 in the following stats: points per game, yards per game, yards per play, 3rd down conversion %, red zone efficiency, TDs, yards per pass, completion %, passing yards, and giveaways per game. The Steelers defense is also mediocre-to-awful in almost every statistic, and DVOA has them ranked 19th.  The Steelers offense has been performing like an average group, but the Falcons D is also mediocre-to-awful in every category. This means this will likely be a shootout, and the over 57.5 looks like a good bet.
Packers at Lions | Winner: Packers +1
The Packers are 7-3 over the last 10 years in Detroit, and that’s including games where Aaron Rodgers hasn’t played. The Packers are also considerably better than Detroit. Everyone views the Packers as having a porous defense, but the Packers lead the Lions in the following defensive categories: opponent points per game, opponent yards per game, opponent yards per play, opponent yards per rush, opponent rush yards per game, opponent completion %, opponent yards per pass, takeaways per game, and interception thrown %. Green Bay also leads the Lions in offensive and defensive DVOA.

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